...2010 Hurricane Summary

The tropical storm season has officially finished for this year, and not a minute too soon.  The spring forecasts all called for above-average activity, and they were right.  Nineteen named storms made this the third-busiest year in more than a century of record-keeping (tied with 1887 and 1995).  It was beaten only by 1933 (21 storms) and 2005 (28).  Twelve hurricanes in 2010 tied with 1969 for second place, beaten only by 2005 (15).

The season set some records.  Hurricane Julia formed further east, and Karl further south, than any major hurricanes since 1850.  Five hurricanes formed during the month of October.  Only 1870 (six) and 1950 (five) have had five or more October hurricanes.  We also had four Category 4+ storms in just twenty days.  The previous record was 24 days in 1999.  Eleven named storms – equal to a full average season -- formed between August 22 and September 29.  This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine.  And 2010 marks the first time since 1851 that there have been four years in a row with a November or December hurricane.

All of the elements that supported the big forecasts happened more or less as expected.  Sea surface temperatures stayed near record highs, and sea level air pressure stayed lower than usual.  A cold current in the eastern Pacific replaced last year’s El Nino early in the year and stayed through the season.  The combination of these elements allowed the development of both early-season storms (rising out of Africa) and those rising closer to home after August.

What the forecasters didn’t expect was that so few of those storms would hit land.  In a “normal” season, about one named storm in three makes landfall somewhere in the U.S.  South Florida and the Gulf Coast (Texas and Louisiana) are the favourite targets.  Only Bonnie, a fairly weak tropical storm, hit south Florida.  The Gulf Coast was spared except for Tropical Storm Hermine and heavy rain from a couple of tropical depressions.  Low pressure troughs in the western Atlantic drew the early storms north and east, while a return of hot, dry Saharan air pushed some later ones to the south.

In Jamaica, the only serious impact was heavy rain and flooding from the slow-moving outer edge of Tropical Storm Nicole.  Canada, Mexico and Central America were not so lucky.  Hurricanes Earl and Igor both caused damage and severe flooding on Canada’s east coast.  Two depressions and five storms, four of them hurricanes, made landfall somewhere in Mexico, Honduras, Belize or Guatemala.

In most cases the storm watches and warnings gave every person who was paying attention plenty of time to be prepared.  Hurricane Tomas, claiming more than 40 lives in Curacao, St. Lucia and Haiti, ranks as the 6th deadliest late-season hurricane since 1851.  When Tomas turned north to miss us, a number of Jamaicans were angry that the government’s hurricane warnings had been too severe, and they’d prepared for trouble that didn’t happen.  This was perhaps the saddest – and silliest -- sight of the whole season.  When it comes to hurricanes, you can never be too ready.