…when the storm meets the oil spill

Crude oil has been leaking into the Gulf of Mexico for two months.  The leak – about a mile below the surface – started with the explosion of a British Petroleum drilling rig.  An estimated 35 – 50 million gallons of oil have spilled into the Gulf already, and the surface slick covers an area the size of Jamaica.

Tar balls are washing up on the beaches of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.  The region’s prosperous – and carefully managed – fisheries are in serious trouble, with more than a third of the Gulf already closed to fishing.  Both the oil and the toxic chemicals used to break it up are dangerous to marine life, and there are concerns about whether fish and seafood caught in the area are safe to eat.

Now the hurricane season is officially started, and it’s expected to be a very busy one.  Gulf coast residents, and even people further inland, don’t know whether to panic or despair.

They’re not getting any comfort from the hurricane experts.  The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Florida State University’s storm forecasters both believe that the oil slick will do almost nothing to slow or weaken an approaching storm.  That’s the bad news.

The worse news is that the storm could produce some very unpleasant effects from both the slick and the leak.  First, it won’t be safe to continue working at sea if a tropical storm is near.  This means that if the leak is not stopped before the first serious storm arrives, there may not be another chance until much later in the year.  The surface cleanup can start again as soon as the sea is calm, but will have to begin from scratch.  Depending on the strength and track of the storm, the slick (and all the broken booms) could be anywhere from Florida to Mexico.

Second, a lot of the spill is going to end up on land.  Storm surge, big waves and high winds will carry tar balls, oily water and oil-covered debris well beyond the beaches.  Fresh water sources will almost certainly be polluted – this is already happening in some of Louisiana’s tidal wetlands.

Third, it’s likely that some of the oil will escape from the Gulf and end up on the U.S. east coast.  If the spill spreads a little east and south from its present location, it will meet the Loop Current – a stream of water that funnels north between Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, then turns back to flow east between Florida and Cuba.  There it joins the Gulf Stream, turning north and possibly leaving tar balls on Atlantic beaches as well.

Finally, there may be a faint sign that a lesson has been learned.  Historically, the Louisiana coast was protected by a string of barrier islands.  Dredging the Mississippi Delta to “improve” the Port of New Orleans caused most of these mangrove-covered sand bars to wash away, leaving the city almost unprotected against Hurricane Katrina and all the storms to follow.  Now the federal and state governments propose to rebuild some of the barrier islands.  Since they will also block floating oil, BP will contribute US$360 million of the cost.  This project is probably too little.  It will take at least two months, weather permitting, so it may also be too late.