… storm soon come

The Atlantic tropical storm season extends (officially) from June 1 to November 30.  Before the storm season comes the forecast season – about six weeks when all the weather experts tell us how active the next six months could be.  These forecasts are closely watched by insurance companies, construction contractors and commodity traders – especially those dealing in food, fuel and building materials.

The forecast season started in earnest on April 7, when the respected team from Colorado State University issued its spring outlook for 2010.  Philip Klotzbach and William Gray expect 15 named tropical storms this year, of which eight are likely to become hurricanes.  They also feel there is a better-than-even chance (58%) that a major hurricane will land somewhere in the Caribbean.

This forecast is considerably above the yearly average of ten named storms and four hurricanes over nearly 60 years of detailed record-keeping.  It’s six more storms than last year, and more than twice as many hurricanes.  In 2009, a persistent cloud of Sahara dust over the Atlantic and a “moderate to strong” El Nino (a warm Pacific current) kept a lot of developing storms from gaining strength, and steered most of those that did develop away from the Caribbean.

According to the CSU forecasters, two conditions present now have historically been good predictors of above-average storm seasons.  First, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are significantly warmer than those in the South Atlantic.  Second, sea surface air pressures in several critical areas are lower than normal, producing weaker trade winds and less cooling.  Both conditions result from the long-term (several decades) cycle of Atlantic ocean currents.  This circulation is now moving a lot of warmer, saltier water past tropical storm nurseries like North Africa and the Azores.

Also, the El Nino that played such a big part in last year’s quiet season has been weakening since the turn of the year.  By the time the 2010 storm season starts, the forecasters expect it to be no more than a neutral factor.

There will be more forecasts in the next couple of months, including the U.S. National Hurricane Center outlook in mid-May.  All of them are likely to note that we are in a long-term cycle of active storm seasons that has at least another ten years to run.

It’s not too soon to start preparing.  First, check your house, especially the roof and windows.  Repair anything loose or damaged, and replace missing or raised nails.  If you need plywood, zinc or other materials, get them now.  When the storm season gets under way, supplies will run down and prices will run up even faster.

Second, form a couple of good habits.  Tidy your yard.  Things left lying around – trash, old furniture, construction waste – can become deadly missiles when a storm wind picks them up.  Also, if you live near a gully, ditch or culvert, make sure it’s kept clear so water can run away freely.  Even without a direct hit from a hurricane, flooding can be a serious – sometimes deadly – problem.

Jamaica’s Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has good material on getting ready for hurricanes, including checklists for households and for farmers.  This material is available either on the website (www.odpem.org.jm) or from parish offices in Falmouth, Montego Bay, Lucea and Savanna La Mar.